宏观情绪提振，氯碱震荡走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Wait - and - See [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC: Affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC market has fluctuated upwards, but the fundamentals remain weak. Supply is increasing while demand is weak, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with cost support remaining weak [3] - Caustic Soda: Supply is at a high level, and although there may be a slight decline later, demand has some rigid support. The cost support is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+37), the East China basis is - 167 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 107 yuan/ton (+3) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4940 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The blue charcoal price is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 252 yuan/ton (-231), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 489 yuan/ton (-10), and the PVC export profit is 9.0 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - PVC Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [1] - Downstream Order Situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2502 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 503.78 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [2] - Downstream Operation of Caustic Soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: After the previous maintenance, production has resumed, and the overall operation has increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual mass production of new capacity, PVC production is expected to continue to rise, and the supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3] - Inventory: Due to the increase in production and weak demand, the PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high [3] - Cost: The calcium carbide price is weak, and ethylene is mainly stable. The cost support for PVC is still weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period. Although some enterprises have reduced their production, and Yantai Wanhua is planning maintenance, the operation may decline slightly later. Attention should be paid to the operation in Shandong from late August to September [3] - Demand: The alumina profit is acceptable, and the operation continues to rise. The delivery volume to the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum operation has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3] - Cost: The liquid chlorine price has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the cost support for caustic soda is strong. The chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread - Cross - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait - and - See - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None [4]