农产品日报：市场情绪回暖，板块整体反弹-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - The cotton market is currently experiencing a rebound in market sentiment. However, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to remain in a state of loose supply. In the short - term, cotton prices have bottom support, but in the long - term, there is limited upward space [2][3]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the expected recovery of global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and favorable weather conditions in major producing regions. At the same time, the rebound in import demand limits the overall decline of sugar prices. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [4][6]. - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,052 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. - US cotton growth: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton were all behind the same period last year and the five - year average [1]. Market Analysis - International: Affected by the "reciprocal tariff" and weak weekly signing of US cotton, the price of ICE US cotton moved down last week. The 25/26 global cotton market may be in a loose supply pattern, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. - Domestic: In July, the commercial cotton inventory decreased rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to remain low. The cotton price has short - term bottom support. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the new cotton production increase expectation restricts the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral attitude. Cotton prices have strong support below, but the long - term upward space is limited [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,815 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Price index: The FAO sugar price index in July averaged 103.3 points, down 0.2 points (0.2%) from June, falling for the fifth consecutive month [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The latest bi - weekly data from Brazil is bearish. Although some institutions have lowered Brazil's production estimate, the raw sugar futures are bottom - oscillating. - Zhengzhou sugar: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and a large amount of imported sugar has arrived at ports. The domestic spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the short - term upward pressure on Zhengzhou sugar is large [5][6]. Strategy - Take a neutral attitude. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Market price trends: Different pulp varieties in the imported wood pulp spot market showed differentiated price trends yesterday [6][7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year. Although the import volume is expected to decline in the second half of the year, the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral attitude. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [9].