农产品日报：苹果刷新半月高位，新季枣减产分歧大-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is currently in a relatively stable state with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. The overall apple spot market is in a dull state, with low inventory levels supporting the price of inventory fruits. The quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, leading to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in Shandong will be on the market successively, and attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala, as a concentrated supply of red fruits may impact inventory fruits [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market has intensified differences in the new - season production forecast. The short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, since red dates are still in the traditional off - season of consumption and the inventory of old dates remains high, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8178 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.63% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 578 in Qixia was down 51 from the previous day, and the spot basis AP10 + 822 in Luochuan was down 51 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 11550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.16% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 2050 was up 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market News Apple - The market of stored Fuji apples remains stable and dull, with slow overall transactions. Early - maturing Gala and Luoli apples have been successively listed for trading. In the western production areas, the remaining supply of goods is limited, and spot merchants mainly sell their own inventory. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants is small, and they are still cautious in purchasing, mostly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the sales are still mainly low - priced striped red apples. In the early - maturing aspect, bagged Gala apples have been widely removed from bags and are successively listed for trading. This week, the supply of Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan will increase. In the Shandong production area, Luoli apples are being traded in an orderly manner, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The demand in the sales area market is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Red dates - In the main production areas of Xinjiang gray jujubes, jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management during the growth period of jujube trees. Some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade at 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade at 8.40 yuan/kg, and third - grade at 6.90 yuan/kg, and the prices increased slightly by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with nearly 50% of the arrivals being traded. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the price of high - quality goods was strong, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg, first - grade at 10.50 yuan/kg, and second - grade at 8.50 yuan/kg, and the prices increased by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with a small amount of trading in the morning market [6] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed up, reaching a half - month high. The delayed supply of new - season Gala apples and the low inventory in recent years have led to a continued upward trend in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather changes in the main production areas. Last week, the trading of early - maturing apples in the western region was limited, bagged Gala apples were sporadically listed, and bagged Qinyang apples were basically out of the market. In the Shandong production area, the sales of stored Fuji apples were slightly faster than the previous week, but the overall transactions were still limited, and merchants were not active in purchasing, especially for large and high - quality fruits. In terms of price, early - maturing fruits were weak, and the price of stored fruits was stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of the sales areas, the phenomenon of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the overall sales were still slow. This week, the supply of early - maturing bagged Gala apples will increase successively, and attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. Overall, the apple spot market remains dull, with low inventory levels supporting the price of stored fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing apples with many green - returning phenomena has led to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and stored fruits. This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in the Shandong production area will be successively listed for supply. Attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala apples, and if red fruits are supplied in a concentrated manner, it may have a certain impact on stored fruits [3] Red dates - The red date futures closed down yesterday, ending a continuous upward trend. Festival stocking is gradually starting, but the consumption of inventory is limited. The temperature in the production areas is high, and the quality of new - season jujubes remains to be verified. Currently, jujubes are in the fruit expansion period, and attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes in the production areas on the yield and quality. In the new - season production areas, some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. Last week, there was windy weather in some areas, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas, and attention should be continuously paid to weather changes this week. In the sales areas, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved recently, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. Since new jujubes entered the critical period of flowering and fruit - setting in June, the market has been continuously trading based on the expectation of new - season production reduction, and the sensitivity to new - season changes in the production areas has increased. According to the research data statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this month was 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, indicating a decline in sample - point inventory [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since there are no prominent contradictions in the apple fundamentals, it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [4] Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. The differences in the new - season production forecast of red dates are intensifying, and the short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the traditional off - season of consumption, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]