融资余额破两万亿，市场延续慢牛格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The market continues its slow - bull pattern. The US inflation data strengthens the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, driving overnight US stocks up. The domestic A - share market maintains an upward trend driven by liquidity, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and attracting foreign capital. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a key point, leading to increased market volatility and enlarged trading volume. The market still has the basis for an upward trend in shocks, but attention should be paid to the impact of trading volume changes on the sustainability of the trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic Situation: The China - US joint statement indicates that both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12. China will continue to suspend relevant measures in the unreliable entity list. The three - department jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal discount policy. Overseas, the US July CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the September meeting with a probability of over 90% [1] - Spot Market: A - share indices oscillated upward. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.24%. Communication, electronics, and coal industries led the gains, while national defense and military industry, steel, and building materials industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 1.9 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.39% [1] - Futures Market: In the futures market, the basis of index futures is converging as the current - month contract is about to be delivered on Friday. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of IH increased, while the open interest of index futures decreased [1][3] Strategy - The US inflation data strengthens the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, driving overnight US stocks up. The domestic A - share market continues its upward trend driven by liquidity. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a key point, with increased volatility and enlarged trading volume. The market still has the basis for an upward trend in shocks, but attention should be paid to the impact of trading volume changes on the trend's sustainability [2] Macro Economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][9][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52% to 4143.83 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.03% to 2807.01 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41% to 6418.16 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28% to 6963.61 points [12] - Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 1.9 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of IH increased, while the open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 103,585 (a decrease of 1,165), and the open interest was 256,148 (a decrease of 8,595) [14] - Basis: The basis of index futures is converging as the current - month contract is about to be delivered. The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts are provided, such as the IF current - month contract basis was 0.57 (an increase of 7.08) [1][38] - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different periods are given, for example, the IF spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 13.20 (a decrease of 2.00) [43]