燃料油日报：俄罗斯燃料油发货量回升-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.14% at 2,770 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.95% at 3,502 yuan/ton. After the callback, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillating trend recently. The FU and LU futures followed the decline of the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market has potential suppression on the energy sector. Short-term uncertainty comes from the outcome of the meeting between Russia and the US on the 15th. Whether the US tightens or eases sanctions against Russia will affect market sentiment [1]. - For the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply remains relatively abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested. According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, the US relaxes sanctions against Russia, and Ukraine stops drone attacks on Russian refineries, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. On the one hand, domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. On the other hand, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Market Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - After continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited, and there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and inventories in the Asia-Pacific region are high [1]. - Under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested [1]. - According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. After the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally [2]. - From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]