新能源及有色金属日报：下游维持刚需采购，但宏观因素使得铅价震荡走高-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to exhibit the characteristics of the traditional peak - demand season. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Spot Market - On August 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.50/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures were weakly volatile. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi with low inventories quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,915 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,986 lots, a change of -5,637 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,223 lots, a change of -3,172 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price was volatile, with a high of 16,980 yuan/ton and a low of 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,960 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On August 12, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a change of -1,100 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 12, the LME lead inventory was 262,250 tons, a change of -2,575 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain volatile, with a recommended option strategy of selling a wide - straddle [3]