FICC日报：运价处于下行周期，HPL公布10月份2艘加班船-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is in a downward cycle, and HPL has announced two additional ships in October [1][2][3] - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the risk of whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4] - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 12, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,656.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 45,620.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1528.00, 1350.00, 1482.10, 2082.00, 1417.60, and 1742.00 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 8, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1961.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1823.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2792.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 11, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2235.48 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1082.14 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU; 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [5] - From August to October 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route showed certain fluctuations, and there were empty sailings and additional ships in August and September [2] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for talks on a Gaza cease - fire framework, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the possibility of a partial cease - fire and hostage release agreement with Hamas no longer exists [1] - The speed of container ships of different capacities and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal are important factors affecting the supply chain [52][64][70] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Western holidays are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and merchants usually stock up in advance, which leads to a relatively high level of shipping volume. The freight rate is usually adjusted to a high level by shipping companies through supply - side measures [4] - The industrial production index, import amount from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year in the EU 27 countries, as well as China's export volume to the EU, are important indicators to measure demand and the European economy [73][80][83]