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美国7月核心CPI略微回升但符合预期,9月重启降息可期
SPDB International·2025-08-13 08:01

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]