Changjiang Securities·2025-08-13 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's PE ratio as of the end of July is 38.24x, which is at the 58th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of value for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of 28.4 billion, 31.1 billion, and 33.7 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 17.7 billion, 18.7 billion, and 20.6 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 30.9, 29.2, and 26.4 times respectively [2][52] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In July, the Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, supported by domestic policy drivers. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 23.5% and 22.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The monthly average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 262.9 billion HKD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 166.6% [7][10][15] Derivatives Market - In July, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 572,000 contracts, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year. Conversely, the ADV for options increased by 14.8% month-on-month and 30.6% year-on-year, reaching 942,000 contracts. The ADT for structured products was 15.7 billion HKD, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 48.0% [19][25] Primary Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market saw a significant year-on-year increase of 333% in July, with 9 new listings totaling 19.9 billion HKD. However, this represented a month-on-month decrease of 34%. The cumulative number of new listings from January to July was 52, with a total scale of 128.7 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 610% [30][31] Investment Income - As of the end of July, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, and overnight were 2.27%, 1.03%, and 0.19% respectively, showing a mixed trend with some rates declining year-on-year. The U.S. overnight bank funding rate remained stable at 4.33% [41][52] Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic economic sentiment has declined, with the manufacturing PMI for July at 49.30%, indicating a contraction. The overseas liquidity is tightening due to the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 [44][46]