美国CPI点评：核心通胀回升趋势确立，美联储降息可能受限

Inflation Trends - The core CPI in the US rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, marking the second-highest rise since April 2024[3] - Core durable goods prices increased significantly by 0.36% month-on-month, while energy prices fell by 1.07%, indicating the impact of elevated tariff rates on goods inflation[4] - The labor market's cooling has not significantly affected inflation, as average hourly wages rebounded, sustaining the wage inflation spiral[4] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong rebound in core inflation may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, as maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2% becomes challenging[5] - The ongoing high tariff rates, ranging from 10% to 41%, are expected to further influence the core CPI in the coming months as trade agreements are finalized[5] - The anticipated effects of large-scale tax cuts for residents and businesses have yet to materialize, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist[5] Economic Outlook - The current economic cycle is likely to remain heated, with potential upward pressure on core inflation due to a tighter labor market and rising wage growth[5] - The divergence in monetary policy among major developed economies may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index as it adjusts to real interest rate differentials[5] - Risks include the possibility that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, which could constrain monetary easing in other countries[6]