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瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises that previously cut production or shut down due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming production with improved market sentiment and "anti - involution" policies. Meanwhile, demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon to control costs. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend as the upside is limited by downstream acceptance, and there will be no significant short - term decline [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 51,290 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan; the main contract position is 132,463 lots, down 3,592 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,355 yuan, up 550 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,690 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,113 tons, up 320 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece; the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to lithium industry chain enterprises to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, adhere to the principle of fair market competition, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity. In the polysilicon sector, some enterprises that previously cut production or shut down are resuming production as market sentiment improves and "anti - involution" policies are advanced [2]. Key Views - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises resume production, while demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, the silicon wafer industry's operating rate decreases, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon. The polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to be volatile [2].