Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Raw material side: Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts nickel supply, raising costs, but increased nickel - iron production in Indonesia has led to a significant drop in nickel - iron prices, weakening cost support [3]. - Supply side: Steel mills' production profits have improved due to rising steel prices and relatively weak raw material cost increases. Steel production is expected to rise in August [3]. - Demand side: The end of the traditional off - season and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season, along with domestic fiscal policies, are expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Market purchasing willingness has recovered, and previous backlogs are being released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. Domestic inventory reduction has slowed, and spot premiums have remained stable [3]. - Technical side: With declining positions and price adjustments, differences between bulls and bears have increased. Attention should be paid to the MA10 support level. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The 09 - 10 contract spread is - 85 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,852 lots, down 474 lots. The main contract position is 144,226 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,518 tons, down 422 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 340 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. Total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons [3]. - Monthly imports of refined nickel and alloys are 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons. Monthly nickel - iron imports are 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons [3]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 925 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [3]. - Monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 592,900 tons, down 15,100 tons [3]. - Monthly stainless - steel exports are 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units [3]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Three departments announced a consumption subsidy policy with a 50,000 - yuan limit for single - item consumption [3]. - China and the US agreed to suspend a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - In July, the US CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year. The core inflation reached the highest level since February, mainly driven by service prices. Traders expect a 95% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [3].
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250813