Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 08:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - Spot Market: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - Demand Side: - Organic Silicon: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - Polysilicon: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].