Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 08:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - situation in the US is favorable for the non - ferrous sector. The start - up rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over recycled lead. The supply of recycled lead is regionally differentiated and generally tight. The demand for lead is mainly in the lead - acid battery field, currently in a slow recovery phase. Although the 8 - month consumption increase is expected to be weak, there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend, and the overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead this week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton; the position of Shanghai lead is 95,492 lots, up 18.5 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,773 lots; the warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead is 62,535 tons, up 2,744 tons; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 262,250 tons, down 3,550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the lead main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 38.73 US dollars/ton, down 3.23 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The production enterprise number of recycled lead is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly start - up rate of primary lead is 75.65%, down 1.84%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.38 tons, down 0.03 tons; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,205.36 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 19,975 thousand pieces, down 25 thousand pieces; the output of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 million vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The total US debt has exceeded 37 trillion US dollars for the first time. The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in July was flat at 2.7%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. Trump proposed that Fed Chairman Powell should cut interest rates and allow a lawsuit against him. US Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Trump's nominee for the Bureau of Labor Statistics proposed to suspend the release of monthly employment reports. Fed nominee Milan said he was glad to see good inflation performance [3].