瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macroscopically, the joint statement of the China-US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. The US CPI in July rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations, and 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%. Core inflation reached the highest level since February, mainly driven by service prices. Traders have significantly increased their expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [3]. - Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season, and the US plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors. Recently, with the rise in tin prices, downstream enterprises have started to take a wait - and - see attitude, and the sentiment for restocking is relatively low. Most traders only have sporadic transactions. The spot premium is maintained at 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories are stable [3]. - Technically, the decline in positions makes bulls cautious. Attention should be paid to the M10 support. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or take a light - position short - term long position, with a reference range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 269,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai Tin is down 230 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,770 US dollars/ton, an increase of 55 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 25,370 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 129 lots, a decrease of 117 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,765 tons, an increase of 15 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,805 tons, an increase of 134 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 7,430 tons, an increase of 33 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.99 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,400 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,400 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 175,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Three departments: For single - transaction consumption of over 50,000 yuan, interest subsidies will be provided with a limit of 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes consumption below 50,000 yuan and consumption in key areas such as household cars, elderly care and child - bearing, education and training, cultural tourism, home improvement, electronic products, and health care [3]. - The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks: The 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [3]. - In July, the overall situation in the US is... (incomplete information in the original text) [3]