7月美国通胀数据点评：“关税持续通胀论”被证伪了吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July CPI remained unchanged year - on - year, with a growth of 2.7%, lower than the Wind expected value of 2.72%. The core CPI increased slightly year - on - year, growing by 3.0%, also lower than the expected 3.04%. Both CPI and core CPI are below the inflation level in February this year [2]. - The main reason for the CPI decline this month is the drop in the energy item, and food prices also slightly decreased. The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown [3]. - The new and used car markets are warming up, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and confidence. However, the used - car wholesale market shows a slight decline, and the inflation concerns from it may be alleviated. Furniture prices are still cooling, reflecting a deepening of weakening demand [4]. - Service - related CPI continues to rise, mainly due to expectations. But the cooling housing market may make service inflation unsustainable, and the spiral risk is still weak [5]. - Supply chain pressure continues to ease, and the CPI of tariff - related commodity categories is cooling. The "one - time impact theory of tariffs" has more explanatory power for the market [7]. - This month's CPI presents a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI further confirms that the impact of tariffs on prices may be one - time. The rise in service CPI may not form a stubborn inflation spiral [7]. - Inflation is still controllable. Market participants regard the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool shows that the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen from 85.9% to 93.4%, and more voices within the Fed support interest rate cuts [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Observation - CPI and Core CPI Trends: In July, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct lower than the previous value). The core CPI increased by 3.0% year - on - year, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct higher than the previous value) [2]. - CPI Sub - item Analysis: The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.9%), and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. The food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, 0.1 pct lower than last month, and 0.0% month - on - month (0.3% in June) [3]. - Demand - Sensitive Indicators: Used - car prices increased by 0.5% month - on - month (previous value - 0.7%), and 4.8% year - on - year. New - car prices also recovered. The CCI US consumer confidence index rose to 97.3% (previous value 93%). However, the used - car wholesale market declined, with the Manheim used - car value index showing a year - on - year decrease to 2.8% and a month - on - month decrease to - 0.53% [4]. - Demand - Lagging Indicators: Furniture price growth slowed to 0.7% month - on - month (previous value 1.0%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices and the deepening of weakening demand [4]. - Service - Related CPI: Service - related CPI continued to rise, but the housing market cooled. Most service - related CPI items increased, especially for medical care services and transportation services. The S&P CS housing price index shows that market rent growth has slowed for 5 consecutive months [5]. 3.2 In - depth Analysis - Inflation Pattern: This month's CPI shows a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI confirms the one - time impact of tariffs on prices [7]. - Reasons for the Limited Service Inflation Spiral: Firstly, the rise in service CPI is driven by inflation expectations, but the actual decline in commodity prices this month may disprove these expectations. Secondly, the areas where service inflation continues to rise are mostly essential - need categories, and the downward trend in the real estate market shows that inflation lacks a strong rolling effect [7][10]. - Inflation Outlook: Inflation is still controllable. Since May, the CPI has remained at 2.7% after a one - time jump, and the core CPI has only increased by 0.1 pct per month, which is lower than the level in February. The market regards the inflation data as positive, and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased [8].