“十五五”规划前瞻之二：推演“十五五”规划对绿色生态类指标要求将进一步上升

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has set 20 key indicators, with 5 being binding ecological indicators, indicating a strong focus on green development [11][20] - The transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to emphasize qualitative improvements in ecological health and system restoration, moving from quantity to quality [3][20] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to align with China's carbon peak target by 2030, suggesting that ecological constraints will remain significant [3][19] Summary by Sections 1. Status of Ecological Indicators in Previous Plans - The "13th Five-Year Plan" included 25 indicators, with 10 being binding ecological indicators, while the "14th Five-Year Plan" reduced this to 5 binding ecological indicators [9][11] - The completion of ecological indicators has faced challenges, particularly in the context of transitioning development models and balancing multiple objectives [2][14] 2. Predictions for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on ecological health and system restoration, with a shift from single-point governance to collaborative governance [3][19] - Policy tools are anticipated to diversify, with a focus on more precise binding indicators and supporting market incentives [3][20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The current A-share market is positioned for a "slow bull" run, influenced by the overlapping trends of new policies and significant investments [20][22] - Key sectors to watch include long-term capital inflow related to dividend stocks (banks, insurance), technology (AI), and consumption sectors with solid fundamentals [20][22]