Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 08:52Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic refined zinc supply growth has accelerated due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, the significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, the repair of smelter profits, the release of new production capacity, and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity. The import loss continues to expand, leading to a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. The overall transaction remains dull, and domestic social inventories continue to increase while the spot premium falls. The significant decline in overseas LME inventories has led to a strong LME zinc price, which in turn drives up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,848 dollars/ton, an increase of 40 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 213,489 lots, an increase of 1,999 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,902 lots, an increase of 823 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 16,192 tons, an increase of 424 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, an increase of 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory is 79,550 tons, a decrease of 875 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 4.76 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.18 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.01%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.21%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [3]. Industry News - The three departments announced that for single - transaction consumption of over 50,000 yuan, interest subsidies will be provided up to a consumption limit of 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes consumption below 50,000 yuan and consumption in key areas such as household cars, elderly care and child - bearing, education and training, cultural tourism, home improvement, electronic products, and health care. The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks joint statement announced that the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. In July, the overall US CPI data was mild, and traders significantly increased their expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [3].