瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].