海外观察：美国2025年7月CPI数据：通胀整体平稳，杰克逊霍尔会议或成关键手

Inflation Data Summary - The US July CPI year-on-year (YoY) is 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month (MoM) CPI increased by 0.2%, matching expectations but down from the previous 0.3%[2] - Core CPI YoY rose to 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and up from the previous 2.9%[2] Price Trends - Food prices YoY decreased from 3.0% to 2.9%, with household food prices dropping from 2.4% to 2.2%[2] - Energy prices YoY fell from -7.9% to -9.0%, with a MoM decline of 1.9%[2] - Core goods contributed significantly to core inflation, rising from 0.7% to 1.2% YoY, with used car prices increasing from 2.8% to 4.8% YoY[2] Housing Market Impact - Core services inflation remained steady at 3.6% YoY for four consecutive months, with housing prices slightly declining from 3.8% to 3.7% YoY[2] - Actual rent decreased from 3.8% to 3.5% YoY, influenced by the cooling housing market[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, US stock markets rose, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, indicating increased expectations for interest rate cuts[2][4] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 94.3%[4] Risks - Potential risks include unfavorable outcomes from US tariff negotiations leading to higher inflation expectations and a downturn in the US economy and employment exceeding forecasts[2]