Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 08:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may experience a slight increase in both supply and demand, with costs being supported and supply expectations improving due to policy impacts. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is also suggested to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,622.50 US dollars/ton, up 36.50 US dollars [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,725 hands to 10,977 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, down 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,610 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export quantity was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 7.80%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.29%, down 0.39% [2]. - The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.21, up 0.02; the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. Industry News - China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks, suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [2]. - The US 7 - month CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected; the core CPI was up 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by more than 90% in the September meeting [2].