国债期货日报：期债全线反弹-20250813

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi from Nanhua Research Institute [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, with all cash bond yields declining, and the medium - and long - end yields falling more significantly [1] - The open market had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan, but the money market remained loose, with DR001 at 1.316% [1] - The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth reached the highest since February, which strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise strongly, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point formed on October 8, 2024, but the impact on the bond market was limited, and the stock - bond跷跷板 effect weakened [3] - In terms of institutional behavior, funds continued to sell, while securities firms turned to buying. In the bullish atmosphere of the A - share market, active funds such as securities firms and funds may sell from time to time, but there is no need to worry too much [3] - After the continuous rise of the A - share market, it may fluctuate, which may provide some space for the bond market. Traders should not chase the rising market, control positions, and lay out next - quarter contracts on dips [3] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Contracts | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Price | 2025 - 08 - 12 Price | Price Change | Last Week's Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.338 | 0.032 | 102.37 | | TF2509 | 105.75 | 105.695 | 0.055 | 105.78 | | T2509 | 108.46 | 108.41 | 0.05 | 108.565 | | TL2509 | 118.31 | 118.15 | 0.16 | 119.34 | [4] Contract Positions | Contract Position | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 102880 | 105870 | - 2990 | 31605 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 177009 | 178301 | - 1292 | 186234 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 236925 | 236006 | 919 | 236282 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 153096 | 153569 | - 473 | 153142 | [4] Basis | Basis | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0396 | 0.0284 | 0.0112 | 0.0136 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.023 | 0.0339 | - 0.0109 | 0.0031 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0072 | 0.0165 | - 0.0093 | 0.0147 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.0322 | 0.1906 | - 0.1584 | 0.0147 | [4] Trading Volume | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume | Volume Change | Last Week's Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract Volume (lots) | 39500 | 34415 | 5085 | 27216 | | TF Main Contract Volume (lots) | 47424 | 48505 | - 1081 | 47098 | | T Main Contract Volume (lots) | 77715 | 76952 | 763 | 64393 | | TL Main Contract Volume (lots) | 125564 | 123182 | 2382 | 78797 | [4] Repo Rates | Repo Rate | 2025 - 08 - 13 Rate | 2025 - 08 - 12 Rate | Rate Change | Last Week's Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3162% | 1.3144% | 0.0018% | 0.0019% | | DR007 | 1.4444% | 1.4404% | 0.004% | - 0.0001% | | DR014 | 1.4688% | 1.4833% | - 0.0145% | - 0.0065% | [4][5] Repo Trading Volume | Repo | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | Last Week's Volume (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 28708.9799 | 28708.9799 | 0 | 28816.6772 | | DR007 | 1081.5185 | 810.5676 | 270.9509 | 957.0987 | | DR014 | 107.5447 | 90.8441 | 16.7006 | 144.4292 | [4][5]