Changjiang Securities·2025-08-13 09:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The launch of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway project is expected to bring a certain elasticity to cement demand in Xinjiang and Tibet [2][4] - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company on August 7, 2025, marks the beginning of project construction, which will significantly impact regional cement demand [5] Summary by Sections Event Description - The Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company has been established, and the subsequent project construction will be closely monitored for its impact on regional cement demand elasticity [4] Event Commentary - The construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway is anticipated to create significant regional cement demand elasticity. The total length of the railway is approximately 1980 km, which could lead to an estimated cement demand increase of about 39.6 million tons over 8 years, averaging 4.95 million tons per year. The estimated annual demand increase for Xinjiang and Tibet is approximately 1.16 million tons and 3.79 million tons, respectively, resulting in demand elasticities of 2.5% and 28.5% for 2024 [5] Market Conditions in Xinjiang - As of 2024, Xinjiang's clinker capacity is 66.96 million tons, with a cement production of 45.59 million tons, indicating a clinker utilization rate of about 43%, which is low compared to national levels. The market has a favorable supply structure, with effective staggered production throughout the year [6] - The regional market has a high concentration, with the top two companies holding nearly 50% market share, and the top three companies, all state-owned or central enterprises, controlling about 60% of the market [6] Market Conditions in Tibet - Tibet's clinker capacity is 12.56 million tons, with a cement production of 13.33 million tons in 2024, resulting in a clinker utilization rate of about 66%, which is relatively high nationally. The market has been experiencing sustained high demand since 2023, with significant ongoing infrastructure projects expected to further boost demand [7] - The leading companies in the region are primarily state-owned, with a high market concentration (CR2 over 60%), providing a strong basis for price stability [7] Key Investment Targets - Key regional cement companies to focus on include Qingsong Jianhua (leading in Xinjiang), Xizang Tianlu (leading in Tibet), and Huaxin Cement (also a leading player in Tibet) [7]