Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-13 09:44Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Wednesday, the I2601 contract fluctuated weakly. In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month in July, in line with the forecast, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the forecast, which increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, port inventories increased, and hot metal production continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the iron ore price rose significantly recently due to positive support, but with the decline of steel prices and technical pressure around 800, the iron ore price adjusted downward. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA declined from high levels and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is to be bearish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 805.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the position volume was 214,582 lots, down 15,444 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 10.5 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 9,298 lots, up 4,504 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, up 400 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.93 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 845 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.27, down 0.03. The estimated import cost was 854 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) was 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,571.60 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 21.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.76 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.38 US dollars/ton, down 0.20 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.38%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.10%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 20.59%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.81%, down 1.76% [2] Industry News - From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]