瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, China and the US issued a joint statement, with the US promising to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods and suspending the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days starting August 12. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.44%, still at a relatively high level; inventory increased, and apparent demand declined. Overall, recent supply-side disturbances supported the rebound of steel prices, but as market sentiment subsided, some varieties experienced corrections, and the short - term hot-rolled coil market fluctuated greatly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward, and the red bars turned green. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,451 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position volume was 1,353,836 hands, down 27,724 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 54,820 hands, down 6,310 hands; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was 4 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 79,286 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 229 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou and Wuhan, it was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 89 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, up 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 44.36 million tons, down 1.92 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 619.30 million tons, down 7.48 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 115.36 million tons, up 4.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production was 314.89 million tons, down 7.90 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 80.44%, down 2.02%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 77.88 million tons, down 1.42 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 278.75 million tons, up 10.10 million tons. The domestic crude steel production was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the net steel export volume was 938.40 million tons, up 17.40 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, down 0.2031 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.593 million vehicles, down 0.3115 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units; the monthly household refrigerator production was 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units; the monthly household washing machine production was 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, and state - owned banks followed up. On August 8, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic fact report and final - ruling recommendation for the anti - dumping sunset review of steel reinforcing bars imported from China, and was expected to complete the basic fact report by December 10, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 9, 2026 [2] 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly production, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]