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豆粕:8月USDA报告利多,助力价格上行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-13 09:49
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The August USDA report is bullish, as it lowers the ending stocks and inventory - to - use ratios of global and US soybeans for the 2025/26 season. The tightening of the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is the core bullish factor. This not only provides current bullish support but also has potential bullish implications, boosting US soybean prices and, through cost transmission, helping domestic soybean meal futures prices rise. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [1][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Adjustments: In 2025/26, global soybean production is estimated at 426.39 million tons, a 1.29 - million - ton decrease from July, mainly due to a 1.16 - million - ton reduction in US production. Consumption is estimated at 425.1 million tons, a 70,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 187.44 million tons, a 190,000 - ton decrease. Ending stocks are estimated at 124.9 million tons, a 1.17 - million - ton decrease. In 2024/25, global soybean production is estimated at 423.97 million tons, a 1.97 - million - ton increase from July. Consumption is estimated at 410.69 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton increase. Exports are estimated at 181.75 million tons, a 1.02 - million - ton increase [4][5][7]. - Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Adjustments: In 2025/26, global soybean meal production is estimated at 288.58 million tons, unchanged from July. Consumption is estimated at 284.35 million tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 82.04 million tons, an 80,000 - ton increase. Ending stocks are estimated at 18.07 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease, and the inventory - to - use ratio decreases slightly [26]. 3.2 US Soybean Exports - Export Outlook Improvement: In mid - to - late July 2025, the US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea. Sino - US economic and trade talks are ongoing, improving the outlook for US soybean exports [30]. - Export Progress in Different Seasons: For the 2024/25 season, as of the week ending July 31, 2025, cumulative US soybean export sales were about 51.49 million tons, with a sales progress of about 100.9%. The USDA has raised the export estimate three times. For the 2025/26 season, as of the same week, cumulative export sales were about 3.58 million tons, with a sales progress of about 7.7%, lagging behind the same period last year. Chinese buyers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season [32][34]. 3.3 US Soybean Weather The August USDA report significantly raises the US soybean yield estimate, but there is still uncertainty in the weather. The current yield estimate is close to the "perfect weather" scenario, with limited upside but significant downside potential. Recent weather forecasts show that there are some flaws in the weather in the US soybean - growing areas, which may lead to a decrease in yield [38][39]. 3.4 Summary The August USDA report is bullish, tightening the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet. The "low - area, high - yield" pattern of new - crop US soybeans has both current and potential bullish implications. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [44].