宏观点评：2025年7月美国CPI数据点评，过于乐观的降息预期-20250813

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[6] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected at 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and recorded at 3.06%[6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.31%[4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a decline in the dollar index below 98 and a rise in US stocks[4] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations suggest 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but the analysis indicates a potential adjustment down to 2 cuts (in September and December) or even 1 cut (in October)[5] - There is an identified risk of at least an 11 basis point correction in the current rate cut expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on the dollar index and short-term interest rates[5] Economic Outlook - The rebound in used car prices and ongoing tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts prices contribute to inflation dynamics, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term trends over short-term data fluctuations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases[5]