市场主流观点汇总-20250813

Market Data Summary - Commodities: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - Equities: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - Bonds: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - Crude Oil: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - Palm Oil: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - Glass: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - Coking Coal: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].