烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Entering August, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure, with a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Fundamentally, there has been price decline and inventory accumulation in the near term, and the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has gradually declined. The supply output is expected to continue to rise. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the chlor - alkali profit has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual release of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side may gradually emerge [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 63.5% [2]. - Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2750 - 2800 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (contract SH511C2760, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (contract SH2511, buy, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 2400 - 2450 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (contract SH511P2440, sell, hedge ratio 50%, recommended entry range 40 - 60) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions,利多, and利空 Analysis - Core Contradictions: Near - term warehouse receipts and spot prices are under pressure; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Lido Factors: Near - term spot prices fluctuate within a range; there are expectations of cost increase and device elimination [3]. - Lido Factors: The current demand is average; there is high near - term warehouse receipt pressure; there is an oversupply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Daily Changes: On August 13, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2703 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan (- 0.7%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.84%); the 01 contract was 2614 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.83%) [4]. - Caustic Soda Futures Month - spreads: The month - spread (5 - 9) was 222 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the month - spread (9 - 1) was - 133 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the month - spread (1 - 5) was - 89 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [4]. - Caustic Soda Futures Basis: The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the 01 contract basis was - 177 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [4]. - Caustic Soda Factory Prices: The ex - factory price of 32% caustic soda in different regions and brands had different changes. For example, the price of Jinling in Shandong remained unchanged at 2438 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% caustic soda of Jinling increased by 60 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton [6]. - Caustic Soda Market Prices: The market price of flake caustic soda in different regions had different changes. For example, in Shandong, it decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest, it decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton [7]. - Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads: The spreads between different grades and regions of caustic soda had different changes. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda increased by 60 yuan/ton to 103 yuan/ton, and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton [7].