玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass - The current inventory of the mid - stream is at a high level. After the rapid decline of the futures price, the negative feedback continues, and the production and sales are weak. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and the low - price spot in Hubei is around 1020 yuan/ton after continuous price cuts. Further attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term rapid changes in sentiment [3]. 纯碱 - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate. Supply - side stories, regardless of the reasons, will be repeatedly traded, increasing volatility. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has reached a new historical high, and the cost side has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand for纯碱 remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile of 97.8% over 3 years. The monthly price range forecast for纯碱 is 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile of 75.6% over 3 years [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1450 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (FG601C1420) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - Purchase Management: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (FG601P1100) with a 50% ratio at 40 - 50 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. 纯碱 - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SA601C1600) with a 50% ratio at 60 - 70 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - Purchase Management: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (SA601P1200) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. The 09 contract is facing delivery, and near - month trading is returning to reality [2]. 利多解读 - The increase in coal prices raises costs. There are still policy expectations, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. 利空解读 - The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is high, leading to a negative feedback. The actual demand is average [2]. Price and Spread Data Glass - On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1308, 1061, and 1214 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 22, 12, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.65%, 1.12%, and 2.1% respectively. The spot prices of some glass products in different regions also had slight fluctuations [6][7]. 纯碱 - On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1437, 1276, and 1383 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 25, 16, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.71%, 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only a few regions showing price changes [7][8][9].