瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2400 - 2550 yuan/ton in the short - term; SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2530 yuan/ton and the resistance around 2700 yuan/ton [3] - The price of caustic soda in Shandong may continue the weak trend due to high inventory pressure at liquid caustic soda plants and lack of positive factors on the demand side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 70,456 lots, a decrease of 3,689 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 3,349 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 105,105 lots, a decrease of 42,520 lots [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [3] - As of August 7th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 461,700 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08% [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Last week, there were both shutdown and restarting plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.2% month - on - month to 85.1%. This week, there are many planned maintenance plants in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may lead to a slight decline in the caustic soda capacity utilization rate [3] - Demand side: Last week, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 85.73%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97%, and the printing operating rate increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 59.28% [3] Inventory Analysis - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% month - on - month to 461,700 tons [3]