库存增加，盘面震荡整理

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, dragged down by domestic demand, but the downside space is small. The market will experience weak consolidation on the disk due to the impact of the parade with some upstream and downstream shutdowns [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat at the end of the day. The spot price rebounded from the low level. The daily urea production is around 190,000 tons, with a narrow fluctuation. Industrial demand has resilience, but the downstream in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be affected by the parade, and the inventory in factories is rising. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the disk will be weakly sorted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,725 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,726 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume decreased by 16,955 lots to 74,908 lots. In the 2601 contract, long positions decreased by 10,346 lots and short positions increased by 13,304 lots [2] - Spot: The market trading atmosphere has not improved. Upstream factories have lowered prices to attract orders, but the effect is average. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market mainstream quotation rebounded, while the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 13, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,700 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.19% [12] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 6.86%. The pre - sale order days were 6.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 3.68% [13]