2025年7月美国物价数据点评：关税传导仍慢，降息预期增强

Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[11] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 3.0%[11] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations[11] Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by transportation goods, particularly used cars, which saw a significant increase of 1.2 percentage points to 0.5%[15] - Core services inflation increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental services and airfares, which rose by 1.3 percentage points to 2.6% and 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%, respectively[20] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability rising to 94% for a 25 basis point cut[30] - Current market expectations for three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, given the persistent core service inflation and ongoing impacts from tariffs and immigration policies[32] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to core goods inflation remains slow, with concerns that tariffs will continue to influence inflation in the second half of the year[31] - Despite some positive growth in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing, the growth rates have slowed compared to June[16]