华锦股份（000059）：二季度业绩承压，“反内卷”驱动下炼化景气度有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.104 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -989 million yuan, down 33.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.943 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -647 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 167.67% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 89.24% [2][6]. - The report highlights that the refining sector's profitability is expected to improve under the "anti-involution" drive, as the government aims to eliminate vicious competition and optimize supply structure [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 20.104 billion yuan and a net profit of -989 million yuan [2][6]. - The second quarter showed a revenue of 10.943 billion yuan, with a notable quarter-on-quarter growth of 19.45% despite a year-on-year decline [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The refining sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at reducing excessive competition and optimizing supply chains, which may lead to a new upward cycle in the industry [6]. - The company possesses significant resource advantages, being a key player in the oil and petrochemical industry chain, with stable overseas crude oil resources and a well-established logistics system [6]. Production Capacity - The company operates multiple production bases and has a substantial annual production capacity, including 8.3 million tons of crude oil processing and various chemical products [6]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 to 2027 is -1.48 billion yuan, -190 million yuan, and 250 million yuan, respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [6].