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市场博弈加剧,煤焦高位回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-13 10:12

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: On August 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.83%. The spot market is optimistic as the sixth round of price hikes has begun. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable, and the supply disturbances of coking coal support the coke futures. With the 90 - day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the US and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", the main coke contract is expected to remain at a high level [5][34]. - Coking Coal: On August 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,245 points, down 3.00% intraday. The anti - involution policy in the coal industry is still affecting the market, and domestic coking coal production has declined. Considering the unfalsified short - term supply contraction expectation, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation [6][35]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry News - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will shift more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies and service industry business entity loan subsidy policies being implemented [8]. - The price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market has risen. The railway transportation of coal from ETT company to China is seriously behind schedule, but the daily transportation volume in August has increased by 39.68% compared to the first half of 2025, and further increases in railway transportation are planned [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, flat - price index) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 3.52% | - 13.02% | - 22.22% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, ex - warehouse price) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 4.23% | 5.71% | - 8.64% | - 13.95% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 3.48% | 3.48% | 0.85% | - 16.20% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 yuan/ton | 4.61% | 6.71% | 6.71% | - 12.64% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,630 yuan/ton | - 1.21% | - 1.21% | 6.54% | - 11.89% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,737.0 | - 2.83% | 1,823.0 | 1,731.0 | 35,677 | 1,075 | 38,707 | 1,917 | | Coking Coal | | 1,245.0 | - 3.00% | 1,328.0 | 1,230.5 | 2,684,599 | 486,510 | 685,537 | - 33,409 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mines, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2019 - 2025 [23][24][26]. - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [28][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The main contract is expected to remain at a high level due to stable supply - demand, cost support, tariff exemptions, and the approaching peak season [5][34]. - Coking Coal: The futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility as the impact of the anti - involution policy on supply has not been falsified in the short term [6][35].