Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 0.92% and an increase in volume and open interest. Supply disturbances support the strong upward movement of raw materials, driving up steel prices due to increased costs. However, in the context of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the upward driving force is also not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.66% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, inventory increases and the increase expands. Under the weak reality, the hot-rolled coil price continues to be under pressure, but the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily decline of 0%, a decrease in volume, and an increase in open interest. At present, the demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are operating stably. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand resilience is acceptable, which continues to support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will be shifted more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption. The personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy and the service industry business entity loan discount policy will respectively focus on the demand and supply sides of consumption, aiming to achieve a virtuous cycle at both ends of supply and demand [6]. - In July this year, global new ship orders were "halved", but Chinese shipbuilding enterprises still ranked first in the industry. Although affected by factors such as US policies and market fluctuations, the order volume of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises decreased year-on-year, but their market share and leading position in the global shipbuilding industry are still significant [7]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic facts report and final ruling recommendations for the sunset review of anti-dumping on steel bars imported from China. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission is expected to complete the basic facts report of this investigation no later than December 10, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 9, 2026 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products in different regions and the national average prices are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the Shanghai price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai price of hot-rolled coil (4.75mm) is 3,470 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - The prices of iron ore-related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, and the freight rates from Australia and Brazil are also given, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For example, the closing price of rebar futures is 3,222 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%, a trading volume of 1,236,428 lots, and an open interest of 1,652,593 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mill + social inventory), and the inventory of 45 ports in China. They also display the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces [13][18][28]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand pattern continues to weaken, and the inventory increase expands. Although the production reduction of hot-rolled coil due to plate mill maintenance has a certain positive effect, the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand for rebar has improved, but the sustainability of the off-season demand improvement is questionable. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the demand has also improved, but the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement is uncertain. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, and the price is under pressure, but there is also resistance to decline. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - Iron ore: The supply and demand pattern has not changed much. The production of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling, but the profit situation of steel mills is still good, which supports the ore price. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined again, and the supply is weak. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38].
市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-13 10:12