聚酯产业风险管理日报：随煤价走弱-20250813

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply - demand of ethylene glycol fundamentals is basically stable, lacking obvious drivers, and the overall price trend is mainly range - bound. Although there is a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory accumulation is limited, and the supply - demand is in a fragile balance. With low inventory, the upward elasticity is expected to be large. Also, the coal - to - ethylene glycol profit has been compressed by coal prices recently, and the downward space is expected to be limited under stable costs. It is recommended to buy ethylene glycol on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment [3]. 3. Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4% [2]. - For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% [2]. - For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% [2]. - For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short EG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550. Also, buy EG2509P4350 put options and sell EG2509C4500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy EG2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4300 - 4400. Sell EG2509P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 30 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and costs to rise [4]. 利空解读 - There is a market rumor that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering heavy losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation needs further observation [7]. Price and Spread Data - On August 13, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.1 dollars/barrel, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel [8]. - The price of PX CFR China was 836 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 2 dollars/ton and a weekly decrease of 8 dollars/ton [8]. - The price of PTA inner - market spot was 4692 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 13 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton [8]. - The TA main - contract basis was - 11 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [8]. Processing Fee and Profit Data - The Asian PXN was 266 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 265.67 dollars/ton and a weekly increase of 3 dollars/ton [9]. - The POY profit was 73 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 73 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 106 yuan/ton [9]. - The polyester bottle - chip processing fee was 350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 350 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 389 yuan/ton [9].