黑色产业数据每日监测-20250813

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - temperature weather persists, terminal demand remains weak, speculative demand weakens, and futures price fluctuations are limited. In the short - term, the steel market is dominated by macro logic, and prices are mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures turned down overall. The rebar closed at 3222 yuan/ton, down 0.92%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; the iron ore closed at 795 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke fell, with the coking coal dropping by 3% [1] Market Analysis - According to the August 9th Mysteel research data, some independent section steel rolling enterprises have received production suspension and restriction notices. From August 16th to 25th, Tangshan independent rolling enterprises may stop production at any time; from August 20th to September 5th, key areas in Tangshan will implement graded control, and sintering machines, blast furnaces, and rolling lines will be restricted as required. From August 25th to September 3rd, production must stop. If the measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 section steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons. Currently, the inventory in section steel rolling mills is okay, and the short - term supply is not greatly affected. The market sentiment is okay, and transactions are gradually improving [1] - In terms of supply, last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 68.4%, a 10 - month high. The blast furnace operating rate slightly increased to 83.75%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.09%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4032 million tons, but the year - on - year increase was 3.72%. Some electric arc furnace steel mills in certain regions are in full - scale losses, and some have reduced production. However, some regions with high profits still have steel mills resuming production, leading to an increase in the operating rate to a two - month high, but a slight decrease in capacity utilization. Steel mills face the situation of steel inventory accumulation and increased scrap steel recycling costs. It is expected that the profits of electric arc furnace steel mills will continue to decline, and there may be further production cuts [1] Brief Evaluation - The decline in real estate market investment and construction remains the main factor restricting the terminal demand for construction steel. Coupled with the continuous high - temperature weather, the terminal demand in the off - season is weak, and there is no obvious improvement in the short - term demand side. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 13.7536 million tons, a more than two - month high. Among them, the social inventory increased by 201,300 tons month - on - month. The inventory and output of rebar both increased, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month - on - month; the output of hot - rolled coils decreased, the inventory increased month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 4.31%, reaching a six - month low [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short - term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short - term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]