美元走弱支撑铜价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September continues to increase, with the US dollar fluctuating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The domestic copper inventory remains low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rebounding. The Shanghai copper market is generally strong in the short term but still maintains a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [2][59][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Fundamental Information - US: In July, the overall consumer price index (CPI) was lower than market expectations. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down from 0.3% in June, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, the same as last month. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, and the market raised the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to over 96%. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48 in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in 2025 [5]. - China: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year decrease remaining at 3.6% [8]. Recent Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Codelco in Chile is conducting a full - scale investigation after a mine accident. The accident caused six deaths, making it the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades [11]. - Chifeng Gold's Laos Saiban SND gold - copper mine project completed its first - stage resource exploration. As of June 30, 2025, the proven mineral resource volume was 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 g/t and a gold equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [12]. Analysis of LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 12, the highest price of Shanghai copper was 79,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,050 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 1.43%. The highest price of LME copper was 9,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,622.5 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 2.52% [13]. Copper Supply Side - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 ports in China increased by 0.77 million tons to 428,700 tons [23]. - As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the RC was - 3.79 US cents/pound, showing a stable and upward trend. The long - term contracts of smelters are profitable, while the spot contracts are still at a loss, but the production enthusiasm of smelters is acceptable [25]. - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. In July, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [31]. Copper Inventory Data - After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper inventory started to increase significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.95% and a month - on - month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX slowed down, with the inventory at 264,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.72% and a month - on - month increase of 18.23%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not significantly increased, supporting the domestic copper price to some extent. The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong increased slightly [38]. Downstream Terminal Demand - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The utilization rate was lower than expected, and some enterprises reduced or stopped production. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube enterprises showed a downward trend, and the export volume decreased due to the 50% tariff on US copper products [47]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The real estate industry remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in various indicators such as construction area and new construction area [53]. - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026 [56].