中科三环（000970）：25H1经营受政策扰动，H2有望恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 revenue was 2.922 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 11.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.9931 million RMB, an increase of 160.82% year-over-year [1][5] - The company faced operational disruptions due to policy impacts but is expected to see a recovery in H2 2025, particularly in magnetic material exports [1][3] - The report highlights the strategic position of the rare earth magnetic material industry under the backdrop of "de-globalization" [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.922 billion RMB, with a net profit of 43.9931 million RMB and a non-recurring net profit of 31.594 million RMB [1][5] - Q2 2025 revenue was 1.461 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year decline of 10.75% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.04% [1] Policy Impact - The company experienced a decline in overseas revenue due to export controls on heavy rare earth materials, with domestic revenue increasing by 5.62% and international revenue decreasing by 28.85% [2] - The overall revenue for magnetic materials in H1 2025 decreased by 14.93% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 9.39% [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in magnetic material exports in H2 2025, supported by the issuance of export licenses to several companies, including the report's subject [3] - Global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to grow, with projections of 119,700 tons and 129,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards by 14.81%, 16.67%, and 19.01%, respectively, with expected profits of 198.4 million RMB, 333 million RMB, and 478 million RMB [4] - The target price is adjusted to 15.32 RMB, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 2.81 for 2025 [4]