HTSC·2025-08-13 11:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 49.50 [1][9][12] Core Views - The report highlights the positive impact of the concert economy on the company's performance, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of 2025 [6][8][12] - The company is benefiting from a diverse non-gaming portfolio and is expected to attract high-end clientele with the opening of the Capella hotel in September [6][12] - The overall gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to increase, with adjustments made to the EBITDA forecasts for 2025-2027 [9][12] Summary by Sections Financial Data - The closing price as of August 12 was HKD 40.18, with a market capitalization of HKD 175,783 million [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past six months was HKD 462.68 million [2] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 43,432 million, HKD 47,205 million, HKD 53,662 million, and HKD 57,896 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21.71%, 8.69%, 13.68%, and 7.89% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 8,759 million, HKD 10,110 million, HKD 10,504 million, and HKD 11,628 million for the same years, with growth rates of 28.29%, 15.42%, 3.90%, and 10.70% [5] Gaming Performance - The company's gaming revenue for Q2 2025 was HKD 12 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10% [6] - The breakdown of gaming revenue includes VIP at HKD 2.4 billion (up 73% YoY), mass market at HKD 8.8 billion (up 6% YoY), and slots at HKD 800 million (up 19% YoY) [6] Entertainment and Customer Traffic - The company hosted 190 entertainment and sports events in the first half of 2025, resulting in a 65% increase in customer traffic [7] - Upcoming concerts and events are expected to further boost visitor numbers and spending in the second half of 2025 [8][12] Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that the company deserves a valuation premium due to its strong market position and diverse offerings compared to competitors [9][12] - The target price of HKD 49.50 corresponds to a 10.6x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026E, reflecting an upward adjustment from the previous target of HKD 39.50 [9][12]