豆粕生猪：美农报告超预期，连粕大幅上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of CBOT soybean is bullish due to USDA's significant reduction in planting area, but the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus. It is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. For domestic soybean meal, the futures price is pushed up by multiple factors, but there is a risk of chasing high, and the spot price is affected by market sentiment rather than supply - demand fundamentals. For live pigs, the current supply increases and demand is weak, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a suggestion of light - position trial long trading [5][16][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract rose 2.33% to 3163 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes increasing by 70 - 110 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2601 contract fell 0.90% to 14295 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs rose to 13.7 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.18% to 1032 cents/bushel [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. The temperature is close to or higher than normal levels. The weather is expected to have sporadic showers in the future, and most areas have good soil moisture for crops [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, raised the yield per acre, and the ending stocks decreased. The import cost of US, Brazilian and Argentine soybeans increased. The initial ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed led to a sharp increase in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed. Brazil's August soybean, soybean meal and corn export volume forecasts increased. The US inflation data was higher than expected, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates was high. The global oilseed production in 2025/26 was cut by 3.3 million tons [5][6][7] 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the export demand may limit the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures prices are pushed up by favorable factors, but there is a risk of chasing high. The spot price is affected by market sentiment, and the supply is in surplus. Feed enterprises are cautious [16] - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of pigs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is weak due to high temperature, and is expected to improve during the school opening and double - holiday stocking periods. The spot price is falling, the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a suggestion of light - position trial long trading [18][19]