黑色金属日报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with inventory accumulating, and the market sentiment is cautious. The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policy expectations, with large short - term volatility. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are also affected by policy expectations and follow the trends of related products [2][3][4] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated and declined. In the off - season, the demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained high. Downstream industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing were weak, while steel exports were relatively high. The market sentiment was cautious, and the operation rhythm of the futures market was unstable [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. The global supply was strong year - on - year with seasonal increase expectations. Domestic port inventory stabilized and increased, and there was no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory. Terminal demand was weak, but steel mills had no strong motivation to cut production and had some restocking needs. The market speculation sentiment improved, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated downward. There were expectations of production restrictions in East China. The sixth round of price increases was about to be implemented, and production increased slightly. Inventory decreased, and traders were willing to buy. The market was affected by policy expectations, with large short - term volatility and limited downward space [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market oscillated downward. The new regulations increased production costs, and production decreased. The spot auction market improved, and inventory decreased. The market was affected by policy expectations, with large short - term volatility [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese futures market oscillated weakly. Demand was relatively high, production increased but at a slower - than - expected rate, and manganese ore prices increased slightly. The market was affected by policy expectations and followed the coking coal trend [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated weakly. Iron - water production decreased slightly. A large steel mill's tender price increased. Export demand was stable, and supply increased. The market followed the silicomanganese trend and was affected by policy expectations [8]