Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating and consolidating, and slightly closing up. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to the 15,800 yuan/ton level, and the closing price slightly increased by 0.13% to 15,800 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 1,010 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic automobile production and sales data and year - on - year growth in heavy - truck sales data, driven by demand factors, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,497 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,477 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.28% to 2,479 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 104 yuan/ton. Affected by the冲高回落 of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, under the suppression of a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 492.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 488.2 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.41% to 490.6 yuan/barrel. Although OPEC and EIA have increased the global crude oil demand forecast for this year and next year, they cannot offset the rising supply pressure from OPEC+ oil - producing countries. Under the suppression of a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%, and the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decline of 9.39 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.76 percentage points. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.35%, a slight week - on - week decline of 1.57%, a slight month - on - month decline of 4.85%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant week - on - week decline of 84,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decline of 141,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons last year. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.66%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 53.91%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.98 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. As of August 8, 2025, the futures profit margin of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 18 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decline of 25 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 803,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 235,700 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 26,300 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 293,800 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons last year [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day. As of the week of August 1, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, United States, reached 23.006 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 453,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 235,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 96.9%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points. As of August 5, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,829 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 14,194 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,341 contracts or 22.57% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 5, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 230,414 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 19,559 contracts and a significant increase of 10,338 contracts or 4.70% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 15,800 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | - 1,100 yuan/ton | + 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,417 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,479 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | - 62 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 462.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 490.6 yuan/barrel | - 3.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | + 3.2 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and open - interest charts, but does not provide specific chart analysis [14][27][40]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围消化，能化震荡偏弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-13 11:49