主要能源机构8月平衡表

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - EIA's August report further intensifies the supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year. Despite the upward adjustment of demand growth expectations, the supply increase is more significant, leading to a strengthened supply surplus expectation. EIA predicts a sharp decline in Brent crude oil prices in the coming months [8]. - OPEC's August report expects an increase in global crude oil demand this year and next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply. The report also adjusts the global economic growth forecast and analyzes regional refinery profit situations [50][52][63]. Summary by Directory EIA EIA Balance Sheet - EIA shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2. The supply surplus is expected to be most severe in Q3 and Q4 of this year and Q1 and Q2 of next year. The surplus in these four quarters is 162, 210, 226, and 147 thousand barrels per day respectively [8]. - EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to drop from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 per barrel in Q4 and further to $50 per barrel in early 2026. The average price in 2026 is expected to be $51 per barrel [10]. - EIA expects an increase in global liquid fuel consumption this year and next year, with non - OECD Asia being the main driver of demand growth [14]. - EIA expects an increase in global supply this year and next year. Non - OPEC+ leads the supply increase this year, but its growth rate will slow down next year. The supply of the United States is expected to decline next year [16]. - EIA expects a decline in US retail gasoline and diesel prices next year. The distillate oil inventory is expected to remain low, and the distillate oil crack spread is expected to continue to rise [19]. EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA significantly raises the supply forecast for all quarters and the demand forecast for all quarters except 25Q1. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [24]. Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA provides forecasts for US, OECD, and global total inventory consumption [26]. Non - OPEC and OPEC Crude Oil Supply - EIA presents forecasts for non - OPEC and OPEC crude oil total supply, including the supply of major countries and exempt countries within OPEC [28][31][34][37]. Global and Regional Crude Oil Demand - EIA shows forecasts for global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil total demand, as well as the demand of major countries in these regions [40][42][45] OPEC World Oil Demand - OPEC's August report expects global crude oil demand to be 10,514 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 129 thousand barrels per day. Next year, the demand is expected to be 10,652 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 138 thousand barrels per day. Non - OECD Asia remains the main driver of demand growth [50][52]. Non - OPEC Liquids Production - OPEC's August report expects non - OPEC+ crude oil supply to be 5,401 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 81 thousand barrels per day. Next year, it is expected to be 5,464 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 63 thousand barrels per day [53][54]. OPEC+ Production and减产 - OPEC+ production in July was 4,194.0 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33.5 thousand barrels per day. OPEC production increased by 26.3 thousand barrels per day, and OPEC allies' production increased by 7.2 thousand barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries generally well - executed the production plan [55][56][58]. OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's August report expects global demand to increase by 130 thousand barrels per day this year and 140 thousand barrels per day next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 40 thousand barrels per day this year and 60 thousand barrels per day next year [63]. OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - OPEC provides data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage, including land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and floating storage volume, as well as consumption days in different regions [64].