冠通每日交易策略-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, and the dollar is oscillating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous market. The domestic copper inventory is low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rising. The Shanghai copper is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be tight, but the sentiment has declined. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the follow - up start - up situation of other mines needs to be monitored [9]. - Crude oil is in the seasonal travel peak. Although there are factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy, the market is tight in the peak season. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on crude oil increases if the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire occurs, but there is uncertainty. The crude oil futures price has fallen again, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, the demand is restricted by factors such as rainfall, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [12]. - The PP downstream recovery is slow, the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance, and the cost decreases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - The plastic downstream is in the off - season, but there are signs of improvement. The supply has new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15]. - The PVC supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate downward. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17]. - The coking coal inventory of mines has decreased significantly, and the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased. The coke price increase has not been implemented, and the coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - The urea supply has narrow - range fluctuations, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. Affected by the parade, the market is expected to be weakly sorted [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed oil rose more than 3%, soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose nearly 3%, and rapeseed meal rose more than 2%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell more than 5%, industrial silicon fell more than 3%, coking coal fell 3%, coke fell nearly 3%, and polysilicon fell more than 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [4]. - As of 15:27 on August 13, in terms of capital inflows of domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 8.507 billion, CSI 500 2509 had an inflow of 4.343 billion, and SSE 50 2509 had an inflow of 3.75 billion. In terms of outflows, coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 1.303 billion, palm oil 2509 had an outflow of 635 million, and Shanghai gold 2510 had an outflow of 613 million [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The weakening of the dollar and the expected Fed rate cut support the non - ferrous market. The domestic consumption loan policy boosts the downstream demand sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates has increased, and the TC/RC fees have stabilized and rebounded. The current demand is weak, but the inventory has not increased significantly, supporting the copper price [7]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate opened low and closed slightly down. The supply is expected to be affected by the shutdown of Ningde Times' mine, and the demand has increased in terms of inquiry activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price. The IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus in 2025, and the market is tight in the peak season. Concerns about the US economy and the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire increase the downward pressure on crude oil [10]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate has declined, the expected production in August has decreased, the downstream start - up rates vary, and the inventory is at a low level. The narrowing of the raw material discount and the weakening of cost support are expected to lead to weak oscillations [12]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP has increased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate has risen, the inventory is at a high level, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance. It is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, the inventory is high, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity. The off - season has not ended, but there are signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate has increased, the downstream start - up rate is still low, the export situation is uncertain, the inventory is high, the real estate demand is weak, and there is new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - The coking coal price opened high and closed with a decline. The coal mine inventory has decreased, the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased, the coke price increase has not been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. 3.2.9 Urea - The urea price opened low and closed flat. The production is fluctuating narrowly, the demand is weak due to factors such as the parade, the inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. It is expected to be weakly sorted [19][20].