全球展望及资产配置策略

Global Macro - The report emphasizes the need for a defensive yet growth-oriented global asset allocation strategy over the next three to five years, considering the increasing global economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy changes and geopolitical complexities [1][2][3] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery in the first half of 2025 is primarily supported by export and investment activities, particularly in China, while private consumption remains subdued [2][21] - The IMF forecasts China's real GDP growth at 4.8% for 2025, with continued recovery expected from 2026 to 2030 [21] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.9% for 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.02% from 2026 to 2030 [27] - The Eurozone is expected to see GDP growth gradually increase from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.3% by 2027, benefiting from wage and employment growth [2][29] Asset Allocation Trends - Over the past five years, there has been a trend of reducing traditional asset allocations while increasing fixed income and alternative assets [3][40] - The report highlights a shift in investor preferences towards high-quality bonds and growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, while also considering private market investments [45][49] - The report notes that international sovereign funds are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like digital technology and clean energy [40][41] Future Asset Allocation Recommendations - For the period 2025-2027, the report suggests a gradual shift towards a more aggressive asset allocation, emphasizing increased exposure to China and other emerging markets [3][33] - In 2028-2029, it recommends reducing exposure to overvalued assets and reallocating towards value and defensive sectors due to rising recession risks [3][33] Market Participants Analysis - The report indicates that global investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, with a notable preference for alternative assets such as private equity and real estate [39][40] - Family offices are shifting their asset allocations towards equities and alternative investments, reflecting a trend towards more aggressive investment strategies [50][51]