2025年7月金融数据解读：社融表现积极，对实体经济有较好支撑

Group 1: Credit and Financing Performance - In July, new social financing (社融) increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, up by 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong support for the real economy[3] - From January to July 2025, cumulative social financing reached 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The net financing of government bonds was 8.9 trillion yuan, up by 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting active fiscal policy support[3] Group 2: Credit Data Analysis - In July, new RMB loans showed a decrease of 500 billion yuan, with household short-term and medium-to-long-term loans dropping by 382.7 billion yuan and 110 billion yuan respectively[3] - As of the end of July, the total RMB loan balance was 268.51 trillion yuan, growing by 6.9% year-on-year, with a total increase of 12.87 trillion yuan from January to July[3] - The impact of local government debt replacement on credit performance is noted, with net financing of government bonds affecting credit data[3] Group 3: Monetary Indicators - By the end of July, M2 (broad money) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, an improvement from June's 8.3%[3] - M1 (narrow money) reached 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, up from June's 4.6%[3] - The continuous improvement in M1 and M2 indicates a relatively ample liquidity environment, supporting macroeconomic operations and corporate profitability[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic fiscal and monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and a potential downturn in the real estate market[3]