2025 年 7 月美国物价数据点评：关税传导仍慢，降息预期增强

Inflation Data Summary - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[7] - Core CPI increased to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%[7] - Month-on-month CPI growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose to 0.3%[7] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods CPI remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by the transportation sector, particularly used cars, which saw a 1.2 percentage point increase to 0.5%[11] - Tariff-sensitive goods experienced a slowdown in growth, with furniture and clothing showing declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared to June[12] - Core services CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental and air travel services, with airfares increasing by 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%[13] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut[21] - The market anticipates three rate cuts within the year, scheduled for September, October, and December[21] - Despite the optimistic outlook, the company believes the market's expectation of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic due to persistent core service inflation and ongoing tariff impacts[23] Risks and Considerations - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, alongside the potential for continued strength in the U.S. labor market, which could disrupt rate cut expectations[24] - The impact of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, with the potential for further increases in tariffs in the latter half of the year, which may continue to affect inflation dynamics[22]