美国2025年7月CPI点评

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July 2025 CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[2] - The core CPI for July rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, and recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0%[2] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's month-on-month increase was driven by medical services (0.8%) and transportation services (0.8%), while core goods remained flat at 0.2%[2] - Year-on-year, core goods CPI rose significantly from 0.6% to 1.1%, marking the highest level since June 2023[2] Service Inflation Factors - Service inflation may be indirectly influenced by tariffs, as rising operational costs could lead businesses to increase service prices[2] - Notably, airfares saw a significant month-on-month increase of 4% in July, reflecting heightened service demand[2] Federal Reserve Implications - The July CPI data supports a 96.4% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 51.5% chance of three cumulative cuts by December[2] - Despite the potential for rate cuts, inflation risks remain, particularly with service inflation pressures and tariffs still in play[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.29%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record closing highs, indicating increased market risk appetite[2] Risk Considerations - There is high uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and their impact on inflation, alongside potential economic downturns and unexpected Fed rate cuts[8]